Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 1004.750965 1151.662301 1320.232070 1529.685056 1785.367631 2090.496602 2.487010e+03
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 801.819462 988.361089 1224.808007 1553.207535 2008.686126 2636.014259 3.599397e+03
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 707.981297 911.420510 1185.434607 1593.997143 2211.165670 3151.831508 4.791144e+03
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 628.801732 836.908581 1130.785111 1594.633946 2346.832089 3598.570770 6.048145e+03
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 559.546345 763.858326 1063.079104 1557.052688 2405.575208 3925.911268 7.222327e+03
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 518.207119 724.784830 1038.157309 1578.912815 2563.503198 4469.422432 9.094396e+03
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 468.986032 667.577431 976.689997 1527.976877 2577.285907 4735.626416 1.048146e+04
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 430.211831 622.189963 928.090459 1490.514661 2606.667841 5041.176520 1.215598e+04
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 396.313447 581.102546 881.619521 1449.200728 2618.648246 5310.960073 1.391596e+04
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 385.469963 575.999503 894.740405 1519.935828 2879.328488 6268.888378 1.871985e+04
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 371.421132 564.063048 894.292734 1563.839861 3091.605638 7193.335072 2.447486e+04
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 358.714592 553.111417 894.125627 1607.882694 3315.384410 8256.109780 3.239159e+04
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 334.596746 522.250162 857.618604 1578.048422 3370.758580 8902.545726 3.983937e+04
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 319.003779 505.397974 846.242829 1602.596102 3581.501028 10226.667581 5.521747e+04
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 307.171397 493.948222 843.449776 1645.106378 3855.113134 11988.118926 8.107412e+04
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 292.095902 475.202427 824.100837 1645.772427 4009.444775 13407.494974 1.119684e+05
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 274.655603 450.643710 790.469465 1606.596671 4030.889441 14267.009970 1.425451e+05
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 264.533323 439.092493 782.356492 1629.382580 4261.718552 16390.556471 2.186503e+05
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 248.699573 415.440966 746.638641 1576.296371 4221.269102 17043.654530 2.739773e+05
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 235.380612 395.799163 717.792724 1537.267664 4221.589622 17974.366710 3.604135e+05
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 222.815178 376.847908 688.886071 1494.241149 4197.172461 18765.006515 4.697747e+05
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 220.146604 377.218924 702.109194 1567.918010 4642.438205 23366.648399 1.102223e+06
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 215.448191 373.158410 705.053822 1613.670888 5000.731306 28039.778130 2.790569e+06